Key Draw No Bet Statistics
Draw frequency: Across Europe's top 5 leagues, 26% of matches end in draws — meaning one in four 1X2 bets on a winner loses to a draw.
Premier League draws: The 2024/25 Premier League season saw 71 draws from 380 matches (18.7%), lower than the historical average of 25%.
Serie A variance: Serie A historically has the highest draw rate among top leagues at approximately 28%, making DNB particularly valuable.
DNB vs 1X2: Backing favourites on DNB instead of 1X2 reduces variance by approximately 40% over a season of betting.
What is Draw No Bet?
Draw No Bet (DNB) is a football betting market where you back a team to win, but if the match ends in a draw, your stake is refunded. You only lose if your chosen team loses.
How DNB Works
Three possible outcomes:
- Your team wins - You win the bet (at reduced odds)
- Match draws - Stake returned (push)
- Your team loses - You lose the bet
Example:
- Liverpool vs Everton
- Liverpool DNB @ 1.45
- Everton DNB @ 2.80
If you back Liverpool DNB:
- Liverpool wins - Profit at 1.45 odds
- Draw - Stake refunded
- Everton wins - Stake lost
DNB vs Other Markets
DNB vs Match Result (1X2)
| Aspect | 1X2 | Draw No Bet |
|---|---|---|
| Outcomes | 3 (Win/Draw/Lose) | 2 (Win/Push or Lose) |
| Draw result | Lose bet | Stake returned |
| Odds | Higher | Lower |
| Risk | Higher | Lower |
When 1X2 is better: When you have strong conviction and want maximum return.
When DNB is better: When you like a team but draws are likely.
DNB vs Asian Handicap 0
DNB and Asian Handicap 0 (AH 0) are mathematically identical:
- Both refund on draws
- Both require outright win
- Odds should be the same
Pro tip: Compare prices between DNB and AH 0 — different bookmakers may offer better odds on one or the other.
DNB vs Double Chance
| Market | Coverage | Typical Odds |
|---|---|---|
| DNB (Home) | Home win or refund | 1.40-1.60 |
| Double Chance (1X) | Home win or draw wins | 1.25-1.40 |
Double Chance pays less but wins on draws. DNB returns more but only on wins.
When to Use Draw No Bet
Scenario 1: Backing Away Favourites
Away wins are harder to predict. DNB provides insurance:
- Example: Man City away at Wolves
- 1X2: City @ 1.55, Draw @ 4.00, Wolves @ 6.00
- DNB: City @ 1.30
If you're confident City won't lose but less sure about avoiding a draw, DNB at 1.30 protects your stake.
Scenario 2: Cup Matches
Cup ties often produce more draws (extra time/penalties follow):
- Teams approach cautiously
- Underdogs defend deeper
- DNB protects against 0-0 or 1-1 stalemates
Scenario 3: Derby Matches
Local derbies are notoriously unpredictable:
- Form often goes out the window
- High emotional intensity leads to tactical caution
- Draw rates in derbies often exceed 30%
Scenario 4: Building Accumulators
DNB selections in accumulators reduce the chance of one draw ruining your bet:
- A 5-fold with one draw becomes 4 winners + refund on one leg
- Effectively becomes a 4-fold at adjusted odds
DNB Betting Strategies
Strategy 1: The "Scared Favourite" Approach
Back heavy favourites on DNB when the 1X2 odds are too short:
Example:
- Arsenal vs newly promoted team
- Arsenal 1X2: 1.25 (poor value, high stake for low return)
- Arsenal DNB: 1.12
At 1.12, you need Arsenal to win 89.3% of the time to break even. If you assess their true probability at 85%, it's still bad value. But if 1X2 at 1.25 requires 80% and you assess 75%, the 1X2 is worse.
The insight: Sometimes neither market offers value. Check your numbers.
Strategy 2: DNB Accumulator Insurance
Create DNB accas for consistent low-variance returns:
Example 4-Fold DNB:
- Liverpool DNB @ 1.35
- Bayern DNB @ 1.25
- Real Madrid DNB @ 1.40
- PSG DNB @ 1.30
Combined odds: 3.07
With DNB, any draw returns that leg's stake while the rest continues. You might win less, but you'll lose entire accas far less often.
Strategy 3: Live DNB After 0-0
If a match is 0-0 at half-time and you like one team:
- Pre-match DNB odds may have been too short
- Live DNB odds improve as draw becomes more plausible
- Dominant teams (high xG) at 0-0 offer value
Strategy 4: Combining DNB with Over/Under
If you like a favourite but worry about draws:
- Back favourite DNB
- Also back Over 2.5 goals
The combination works when:
- Team wins: Both bets win
- Draw with goals: DNB refund, Over wins
- Draw 0-0: DNB refund, Over loses
- Team loses high-scoring: DNB loses, Over wins
This creates partial coverage across outcomes.
DNB Mistakes to Avoid
Mistake 1: Paying Poor Odds
DNB odds should be proportionally lower than 1X2 odds based on draw probability. Always check fair value.
Mistake 2: Using DNB When Draws Are Unlikely
If two attacking teams rarely draw (e.g., both average Under 15% draw rate), DNB "insurance" is wasted. Take the 1X2.
Mistake 3: Ignoring Asian Handicap Alternatives
AH -0.25 or -0.5 often provides better risk/reward than pure DNB:
- AH -0.25: Half stake on DNB, half on win by 1+
- AH -0.5: Same as DNB but different pricing
Compare all options before betting.
Mistake 4: Over-using in Accumulators
While DNB protects individual legs, accumulated DNB odds can become very short:
- 5 DNB selections at 1.30 each = 3.71 combined
- One loss still kills the acca
- Consider whether the protection is worth the reduced return
DNB in Different Leagues
High Draw Leagues (DNB More Valuable)
- Serie A: ~28% draw rate
- Ligue 1: ~26% draw rate
- La Liga: ~25% draw rate
Low Draw Leagues (DNB Less Valuable)
- Eredivisie: ~20% draw rate
- Bundesliga: ~22% draw rate
- Premier League: ~19-25% (varies by season)
Conclusion
Draw No Bet is a valuable tool for managing risk, particularly when backing favourites in unpredictable situations. The key is understanding when the protection justifies the reduced odds.
Use DNB when:
- Draw probability is genuinely elevated
- You want accumulator protection
- 1X2 odds are too short for the risk
Avoid DNB when:
- Teams rarely draw
- The odds reduction is disproportionate
- Asian Handicap offers better value
Master DNB alongside Asian Handicap 0 comparisons, and you'll have a powerful low-variance weapon in your betting arsenal.
ScoreSage AI analyses draw probability for every match. Our predictions highlight when DNB offers genuine value versus when 1X2 or Asian Handicap is the better choice.