The headline: the EFL is scoring, the Premier League is not
Three Premier League rounds and five EFL rounds into 2026/27, the four English leagues have split into two very different stories.
League One is averaging 3.17 goals a game. Last season it averaged 2.62. That is the largest early-season goal jump of the four divisions, and it is not being driven by one freak scoreline — 86% of League One matches have gone over 1.5 goals and 66% have seen both teams score.
The Premier League has gone the other way on the markets that matter most to bettors. Goals per game is fractionally up (2.83 from 2.75), but Over 2.5 has landed in exactly half of matches, down from 55% last season, and both teams have scored in only 53%.
Every figure below comes from the same data that powers our 2026/27 Season Hub, current to Tuesday 8 September 2026, during the September international break. Samples are 30 Premier League matches, 60 Championship, 59 League One and 60 League Two.
Small samples matter. There is a section further down on which of these numbers are large enough to act on and which are still noise. Read it before you bet anything.
All four English leagues, 2026/27 so far
| Metric | Premier League | Championship | League One | League Two |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matches played | 30 | 60 | 59 | 60 |
| Goals per game | 2.83 | 2.87 | 3.17 | 2.67 |
| Both teams to score | 53% | 67% | 66% | 57% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 77% | 83% | 86% | 75% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 65% | 61% | 50% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 33% | 35% | 39% | 32% |
| First-half goal | 70% | 80% | 68% | 75% |
| Second-half goal | 80% | 75% | 83% | 77% |
| Clean sheet in match | 47% | 33% | 34% | 43% |
| 0-0 draws | 7% | 8% | 7% | 8% |
League One leads on every over-goals line. The Championship leads on both teams to score and, by a distance, on first-half goals. The Premier League leads on clean sheets — nearly half of top-flight matches have had at least one team keep the ball out of their net.
What has changed since last season
This is where it gets interesting. Same metrics, this season against each league's full 2025/26 record.
| Metric | Premier League | Championship | League One | League Two |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals per game | +0.08 | +0.28 | +0.55 | +0.10 |
| Both teams to score | −3pp | +10pp | +14pp | +5pp |
| Over 1.5 goals | −2pp | +7pp | +14pp | +2pp |
| Over 2.5 goals | −5pp | +15pp | +10pp | +2pp |
| Over 3.5 goals | +5pp | +10pp | +11pp | +5pp |
| First-half goal | −2pp | +9pp | −2pp | +8pp |
| Clean sheet in match | +3pp | −10pp | −14pp | −5pp |
(pp = percentage points. Last season's baselines are full campaigns: 380 Premier League matches and 557 in each EFL division.)
Two things jump out. League One defences have collapsed — clean sheets down 14 points, both teams scoring up 14 points. And the Championship has become a first-half league almost overnight, with a goal inside 45 minutes in 80% of matches against 71% last season.
Which of these numbers can you actually trust?
Most early-season stats content stops at the table above. That is where it becomes dangerous, because a 5-point move on 30 matches means nothing at all.
Here is the same data with the sample size taken seriously. "Standard errors" below is simply how far each move sits from last season's baseline, measured in units of ordinary random variation. Under roughly 1.5 is noise. Around 2 is worth watching. Over 3 is a genuine shift.
| Change | Sample | Standard errors | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|
| League Two away wins down 20pp | 60 | ~3.3 | Real shift |
| League One goals up 0.55/game | 59 | ~2.5 | Strong signal, not yet settled |
| Championship Over 2.5 up 15pp | 60 | ~2.3 | Strong signal, not yet settled |
| League One BTTS up 14pp | 59 | ~2.2 | Strong signal, not yet settled |
| Championship first-half goals up 9pp | 60 | ~1.5 | Watch it |
| Premier League Over 2.5 down 5pp | 30 | ~0.6 | Noise — ignore it |
| Premier League draws up 6pp | 30 | ~0.7 | Noise — ignore it |
The practical read: the EFL scoring surge is worth adjusting for, the Premier League changes are not. Three matchweeks is 30 games. You cannot learn much about a 380-match league from 30 games, and anyone telling you the Premier League has turned defensive this season is reading a rounding error.
That distinction is the whole job. The longer version is in our guide to finding value bets, which covers how to weigh a small live sample against a large historical one. The League Two away-win collapse gets its own breakdown in Home Advantage 2026/27.
League One: the goal division
League One has produced 187 goals in 59 matches. Its 3.17 per game would be among the highest of any major European league if it held, and its 86% Over 1.5 rate is the highest of the four English divisions.
The shape is unusual. League One is the only English league where second-half goals outnumber first-half goals by a wide margin: a goal has arrived after the break in 83% of matches versus 68% before it, and only 40% of all League One goals have come in the first half. Last season that first-half share was 44%.
Teams driving the numbers, through five matches each:
| Team | BTTS | Over 2.5 | Goals per game (their matches) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Burton Albion | 100% | 80% | — |
| Cambridge United | 100% | 80% | — |
| Notts County | 100% | 40% | — |
| Wycombe | 100% | 60% | — |
| Sheffield Wednesday | 80% | 80% | 3.8 |
| Stockport County | 60% | 80% | 3.8 |
| Oxford United | 75% | 100% | — |
At the other end, Bradford (20% BTTS, 20% Over 2.5) and AFC Wimbledon (20% BTTS) are the fixtures to avoid if you are backing goals. Bradford sit fourth with five scored and four conceded in five games — a promotion start built entirely on 1-0s.
League One corners are also the highest in England at 10.2 per match, with Oxford United (14.0), Sheffield Wednesday (12.5) and Barnsley (12.4) leading. Those feed directly into our corner picks.
Championship: a first-half league
The Championship's 80% first-half goal rate is the standout number in English football right now. Nine of 24 clubs have seen a first-half goal in every match: Millwall, Southampton, West Ham, Wolves, Stoke City, Portsmouth, Watford, Derby and Cardiff.
Average first-half goals are up from 1.20 to 1.47, and 51% of all Championship goals have come before the break — the only English division where the first half outscores the second.
Both teams to score sits at 67%, up ten points, with Southampton, Wolves and Burnley all at 100% through five matches. Wolves have also gone over 2.5 goals in every game.
The other side of that trade: Watford (20% Over 2.5), Swansea and Millwall (both 20% BTTS). Millwall are the interesting case — 20% BTTS but 80% Over 2.5, which is the profile of a team winning and losing matches heavily rather than trading goals.
Live Championship first-half signals sit on our first-half goals page, and the method behind them is explained in the FHG signal-strength guide.
Premier League: fewer goals in the middle, more at the extremes
The Premier League's headline average barely moved, but the distribution did. Over 2.5 is down five points to 50% while Over 3.5 is up five points to 33%. Matches are either tight or they blow open, and the three-goal middle has thinned out. On 30 matches that pattern is a curiosity rather than a finding, but it is the one worth re-checking in October.
Chelsea are the outlier in both directions: 100% BTTS, 100% Over 2.5, five goals per game across their three matches, eight scored and seven conceded. Brighton (8 for, 5 against) and Manchester United (7 for, 6 against) are on similar paths.
At the other extreme, four clubs have not seen a single match with both teams scoring: Hull City, Aston Villa, Tottenham and Coventry. Hull have kept a clean sheet in all three matches and sit third. Villa, Spurs and Coventry have scored zero goals between them across nine matches — the same 0% BTTS rate arriving from the opposite direction, and exactly the trap that catches people backing a "no goals" trend without checking which side of the scoreline is missing.
Premier League corners are low too: 8.6 per match, with only 33% going over 9.5 — comfortably the smallest corner volume of the four divisions.
League Two: goals flat, cards high, away teams missing
League Two's goal numbers have barely moved (2.67 from 2.57, Over 2.5 at 50%). The story here is elsewhere: away teams have won 8 of 60 matches, and the division averages 4.0 cards a game, the highest in England.
Cheltenham have gone over 2.5 goals in all five matches. Barnet, Cheltenham and York have seen both teams score every time out. Northampton sit at the opposite pole with 0% Over 2.5 and 1.2 goals per game.
Corners and cards: this season only
Both metrics are new to our league data this season, so there is no like-for-like comparison with 2025/26. Coverage is also partial — corner and card data exists for 47 to 52 matches in each EFL division against all 30 Premier League matches.
| Metric | Premier League | Championship | League One | League Two |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Corners per match | 8.6 | 9.8 | 10.2 | 9.7 |
| Over 9.5 corners | 33% | 56% | 52% | 54% |
| Over 10.5 corners | 27% | 42% | 35% | 44% |
| Cards per match | 3.8 | 3.3 | 3.4 | 4.0 |
The Premier League corner floor is the number to note. A third of top-flight matches clearing 9.5 corners is well below every EFL division.
How to use this without getting burned
- Adjust for the EFL, not the Premier League. The League One and Championship goal signals are strong enough to lean on. The Premier League moves sit inside normal variation.
- Check the direction of a 0% BTTS. A team not seeing both sides score can mean an airtight defence or an attack that has stopped functioning. Those are opposite bets.
- Respect the sample on team-level rates. A club at 100% BTTS has played five matches. That is a lean, not a law.
- Re-check after the international break. The EFL resumes from 8 September and the Premier League from 12 September. Two more rounds roughly doubles the EFL sample and will settle several of the "watch it" rows above.
- Stake to a plan. None of this changes the maths of staking — our bankroll management guide covers the framework.
Live versions of every number here update daily on the Season Hub, with graded picks on BTTS, first-half goals and Best Bets, and the settled record on verified results. For market background, see our Over 2.5 goals strategy guide and complete BTTS guide.
FAQs
Which English league scores the most goals in 2026/27?
League One, at 3.17 goals per game across its first 59 matches. That is up from 2.62 last season and ahead of the Championship (2.87), the Premier League (2.83) and League Two (2.67).
What is the Championship BTTS percentage this season?
Both teams have scored in 67% of Championship matches, up from 57% across the whole of last season. Southampton, Wolves and Burnley are at 100% through five games each.
How often do Premier League matches go over 2.5 goals in 2026/27?
Exactly 50% of the first 30 matches, down from 55% last season. On a 30-match sample that drop is well within normal variation and should not be treated as a change in the league.
Which English league has the most corners?
League One, at 10.2 corners per match, with 52% of matches going over 9.5. The Premier League is lowest at 8.6 per match and only 33% over 9.5.
Is it too early to bet on these season trends?
For the Premier League, yes — 30 matches is not enough to separate a real change from noise. The EFL divisions have roughly double the sample, and the League One goal surge and Championship over-goals rate both sit around two to two and a half standard errors from last season's baseline, which makes them worth acting on with sensible stakes.
When do these numbers update?
Daily. The league data behind this article rebuilds every morning and is published on our Season Hub across all the leagues we cover.
ScoreSage AI publishes probability-based football analysis for information and entertainment. Predictions are not guarantees. If you bet, set a budget, never chase losses and gamble responsibly. 18+.