Eight away wins in sixty matches
League Two has played 60 matches in 2026/27. Home teams have won 30 of them. Draws account for 22. Away teams have won eight.
That is a 13% away win rate. Last season, across a full 557-match League Two campaign, away teams won 33% of the time. It is the sharpest home-advantage swing in English football right now, and it is not a story about one dominant side — no League Two club has won more than a single away match, and 16 of the 24 have not won on the road at all.
At the same time, one division above, the opposite is happening. League One away teams have won 20 matches to the hosts' 21. Home advantage there has effectively disappeared.
All figures below come from the same daily league data behind our 2026/27 Season Hub, current to Tuesday 8 September 2026. Samples are 30 Premier League matches, 60 Championship, 59 League One and 60 League Two.
Home, draw, away across the four English leagues
| League | Matches | Home wins | Draws | Away wins | Home % | Draw % | Away % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Premier League | 30 | 12 | 10 | 8 | 40% | 33% | 27% |
| Championship | 60 | 25 | 18 | 17 | 42% | 30% | 28% |
| League One | 59 | 21 | 18 | 20 | 36% | 31% | 34% |
| League Two | 60 | 30 | 22 | 8 | 50% | 37% | 13% |
And the same picture against last season's full campaigns:
| League | Home % change | Draw % change | Away % change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Premier League | −3pp | +6pp | −3pp |
| Championship | +1pp | +3pp | −4pp |
| League One | −10pp | +6pp | +5pp |
| League Two | +8pp | +12pp | −20pp |
Two divisions moved meaningfully and two barely moved at all. That distinction matters more than the raw numbers.
What is real and what is noise
A 60-match sample is small. Before treating any of this as a betting edge, it is worth asking how likely each move would be if nothing had actually changed.
League Two's away-win collapse clears that bar comfortably. If away teams were still winning at last season's 33% rate, you would expect about 20 away wins in 60 matches. Eight is roughly 3.3 standard errors below that — an outcome you would see somewhere around one time in a thousand by chance alone. Something has changed, even if we cannot yet say for how long.
League One's home-advantage loss is borderline. Home wins down 10 points on 59 matches is around 1.6 standard errors. Interesting, worth watching, not yet proven.
The Premier League numbers are noise. Draws up six points sounds dramatic, but on 30 matches that is under one standard error. So is the three-point drop in home wins. Three matchweeks tells you almost nothing about a 380-match league, and any article presenting a Premier League draw "trend" on this sample is selling you variance as insight.
The same logic applies to the goal markets, which we broke down separately in English Football Goal Stats 2026/27.
Inside the League Two away-win drought
Here is every League Two club's away record so far. The pattern is remarkably flat.
Clubs with an away win (all have exactly one): Bristol Rovers, Barnet, Walsall, Fleetwood Town, Crewe, Gillingham, Chesterfield, Crawley Town.
Clubs with none: Swindon Town, Tranmere, Cheltenham, York, Oldham, Grimsby, Colchester, Northampton, Salford City, Exeter City, Rotherham, Accrington Stanley, Newport County, Rochdale, Shrewsbury, Port Vale.
Seven clubs have not even drawn away from home: Salford City, Exeter City, Accrington Stanley, Newport County, Rochdale, Shrewsbury and Port Vale.
The goals data explains the mechanism. League Two away sides are scoring 1.07 goals per match against the hosts' 1.60 — 64 away goals to 96 home goals across the division. Last season away teams averaged 1.20. Losing an eighth of a goal per away trip, in a league where half of all matches finish with two goals or fewer, is enough to turn a large number of away wins into draws.
Which is exactly what happened. League Two draws are up 12 points to 37%. The away wins did not become home wins — they became draws.
Two clubs illustrate the extremes. Bristol Rovers and Swindon Town have both won all three home matches. Port Vale sit bottom on two points with a 0-2-0 home record and 0-0-3 away.
League One: home advantage has gone
League One is the mirror image. Home teams have won 21 of 59, away teams 20. Home goals per match are 1.68 against 1.49 away — the narrowest gap of the four divisions, and away scoring is up sharply from 1.15 last season.
Some of that comes from the table's leaders playing better on the road than at home:
| Team | Position | Home record (W-D-L) | Away record (W-D-L) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sheffield Wednesday | 1st | 1-0-1 | 3-0-0 |
| Stockport County | 3rd | 1-0-1 | 2-0-1 |
| Leyton Orient | 9th | 0-0-2 | 2-1-0 |
| Oxford United | 10th | 0-1-0 | 2-0-1 |
| Mansfield Town | 17th | 2-0-0 | 0-0-3 |
Sheffield Wednesday lead the division with a perfect away record and a home defeat. Leyton Orient have lost both home matches and taken seven points from three on the road. Mansfield are the only club showing a conventional strong-home, weak-away split.
For anyone pricing League One fixtures off last season's home-field assumptions, that is a genuine gap — though at 1.6 standard errors it is a lean, not a certainty.
Draws are up everywhere
The one consistent trend across all four divisions is more drawn matches:
| League | Draw % 2026/27 | Draw % 2025/26 |
|---|---|---|
| Premier League | 33% | 27% |
| Championship | 30% | 27% |
| League One | 31% | 25% |
| League Two | 37% | 25% |
Across all 209 matches in the four leagues, 68 have been drawn — 33%. Last season the same four divisions ran between 25% and 27%.
Only the League Two figure is individually significant, but four divisions all moving the same direction is worth noting even when each move is individually small. Draws are typically the worst-priced outcome in football betting because most casual money goes on teams, not stalemates. Our draw betting strategy guide covers how to identify the fixtures where that mispricing is largest.
Half-time leads are not holding up
There is a related pattern in how matches are being decided. Across our data we track how often a team leading at half time goes on to win.
| League | HT lead converted 2026/27 | 2025/26 |
|---|---|---|
| Premier League | 56% | 73% |
| Championship | 76% | 72% |
| League One | 76% | 72% |
| League Two | 58% | 71% |
The Premier League figure is on roughly 18 matches that had a half-time leader, so treat it as a curiosity rather than a finding. The League Two number is on a larger sample and fits the wider picture: away teams are not winning, home teams are not closing games out, and matches keep drifting into draws.
If you trade half-time and full-time markets, the practical note is that in-play "leader to hold on" prices in League Two are being set against a 71% historical base that the current season is not matching. Our half-time/full-time strategy guide covers how those markets are priced.
Practical takeaways
- League Two away wins are the only thing here strong enough to act on directly. Eight from 60 is a genuine shift, not variance. Adjust away-side prices and consider whether the draw is being underpriced in that division.
- In League Two, the draw is doing the work. The away wins that vanished turned into draws, not home wins, which points at draw and double chance markets rather than simply backing hosts.
- Do not carry last season's League One home-field assumption into this one — but size stakes for a 1.6 standard error signal, not a certainty.
- Ignore the Premier League movements entirely. Thirty matches cannot tell you whether draws are up. Revisit in November.
- Re-check in a fortnight. The EFL resumes from 8 September and the Premier League from 12 September. Two more EFL rounds will roughly double the sample and settle most of what is currently ambiguous.
Live home and away splits for all four divisions update daily on the Season Hub — Premier League, Championship, League One and League Two. Today's graded picks are on Best Bets and football tips today, with the settled record on verified results.
FAQs
How many away wins have there been in League Two this season?
Eight in 60 matches, a 13% away win rate. Last season League Two away teams won 33% of matches. Sixteen of the 24 clubs are yet to win away from home, and no club has more than one away win.
Which English league has the strongest home advantage in 2026/27?
League Two, where home teams have won 50% of matches. League One has the weakest, with home teams winning 36% against 34% for away teams.
Why are there so many draws this season?
Draw rates are up in all four English divisions, from a 25-27% range last season to 30-37% now. In League Two the mechanism is clear: away scoring has fallen from 1.20 to 1.07 goals per match, turning narrow away wins into draws. Only the League Two increase is large enough to be statistically meaningful on the current sample.
Is a 60-match sample enough to bet on?
For a change this large, yes with sensible staking. Eight away wins where you would expect 20 is roughly 3.3 standard errors from last season's rate — around a one-in-a-thousand result by chance. Smaller moves, like the Premier League draw rate on 30 matches, are not.
What is home advantage in football?
Home advantage is the measurable edge home teams get from familiar surroundings, crowd support, no travel and, historically, marginal refereeing bias. Across English league football it has usually been worth roughly a 40-46% home win rate against 29-33% away. Both League One and League Two are currently well outside that range, in opposite directions.
When does English football resume after the September international break?
Premier League fixtures return on 12 September 2026, with the EFL divisions resuming from 8-12 September. We will refresh these figures once two further rounds have been played.
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