What is a Value Bet?
A value bet exists when the odds offered are higher than the true probability of an outcome.
Example:
- You believe Team A has a 50% chance of winning
- Bookmaker offers odds of 2.20 (implied probability 45%)
- This is a value bet (you estimate higher than the odds suggest)
The Value Betting Formula
Expected Value (EV) = (Probability x Odds) - 1
If EV is positive, you have value.
Calculation:
- Your estimated probability: 55%
- Odds offered: 2.00
- EV = (0.55 x 2.00) - 1 = 0.10 (+10%)
Step 1: Build Your Own Probability Model
Method 1: Historical Data
Compare team statistics:
- Home team's home win rate
- Away team's away win rate
- Head-to-head record
- Recent form (last 6 matches)
Method 2: Expected Goals (xG)
- Find each team's xG for and against
- Calculate expected goal margin
- Convert to win probability
Method 3: Market Comparison
Sharp bookmakers (Pinnacle) are highly accurate. Compare their prices to other bookmakers.
Step 2: Convert Odds to Implied Probability
Formula: 1 / Decimal Odds x 100
| Odds | Implied Probability |
|---|---|
| 1.50 | 66.7% |
| 2.00 | 50.0% |
| 3.00 | 33.3% |
| 5.00 | 20.0% |
Step 3: Compare Your Probability to Odds
If your probability > implied probability = VALUE
Minimum Edge Required:
- Casual betting: +3% minimum
- Professional: +5% minimum
Common Places to Find Value
- Early Team News - Key player injuries before market adjusts
- Local League Knowledge - Bookmakers can't watch every match
- Statistical Anomalies - Teams with high xG but low goals
- In-Play Mispricing - After early goals, red cards
- Less Liquid Markets - Corners, cards, player markets
Red Flags: When It's Not Value
- "The odds look too good" - Usually they're not
- Everyone agrees it's value - Markets adjust quickly
- You can't explain why - Probably isn't value
ScoreSage AI provides probability estimates to help identify value opportunities.