Group A: South Korea, Mexico, Czechia and South Africa
The World Cup's curtain-raiser group, and one of the most open in the whole draw — no genuine heavyweight, and four sides who all believe a knockout place is on.
The numbers below are our modelled top-two probabilities — the same figures published on the World Cup 2026 hub — aggregated from public betting markets and tournament-simulation models. The top two from the group qualify automatically, and the eight best third-placed teams across all 12 groups also advance to the new Round of 32.
| Team | Top-2 probability | Projected run |
|---|---|---|
| South Korea | 72% | Round of 32 (advances) |
| Mexico | 52% | Round of 32 (advances) |
| Czechia | 44% | Group stage (out) |
| South Africa | 33% | Group stage (out) |
Who wins Group A?
South Korea (72%) lean on a European-based spine and tournament know-how — captain Son Heung-min gives them the highest floor here.
Who takes second?
Mexico (52%) ride home support at the Azteca; the opener is worth real points and the quality is there to take second.
The third-place picture
With eight best-third places up for grabs, the race behind the top two matters. Czechia (44%) are technically sound and tough to break down, and the most likely best-third candidate from this group — but our model has them just missing the eight-team cut.
Key fixture
Mexico vs South Africa kicks off the entire tournament on June 11 at the Estadio Azteca in Mexico City (15:00 local).
Our verdict — who advances from Group A?
- Winner: South Korea
- Runner-up: Mexico
- Best-third watch: Czechia — projected to just miss the eight best-third places
On our projection, South Korea and Mexico go through from Group A.
This is one of 12 group previews — see the full group-by-group predictions for all of them, or the World Cup 2026 hub for outright odds and the projected knockout bracket. Once the tournament kicks off, ScoreSage AI publishes AI predictions for every individual match on our daily predictions feed.
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