Group C: Brazil, Morocco, Scotland and Haiti
Brazil are as close to a lock as this tournament offers. The real intrigue is who joins them — a Morocco side that stunned the world in 2022, or a Scotland team chasing a best-third ticket.
The numbers below are our modelled top-two probabilities — the same figures published on the World Cup 2026 hub — aggregated from public betting markets and tournament-simulation models. The top two from the group qualify automatically, and the eight best third-placed teams across all 12 groups also advance to the new Round of 32.
| Team | Top-2 probability | Projected run |
|---|---|---|
| Brazil | 99% | Quarter-finals (advances) |
| Morocco | 59% | Round of 16 (advances) |
| Scotland | 38% | Round of 32 (advances) |
| Haiti | 5% | Group stage (out) |
Who wins Group C?
Brazil (99%) have the deepest attacking talent in the field and should top this comfortably.
Who takes second?
Morocco (59%) are organised, athletic and carry belief after their 2022 semi-final run, with Achraf Hakimi driving them on.
The third-place picture
With eight best-third places up for grabs, the race behind the top two matters. Scotland (38%) are our live best-third pick: a point off Morocco plus a win over Haiti should be enough to progress.
Key fixture
Brazil vs Morocco on June 13 at MetLife Stadium, New Jersey, is the pick of the opening weekend — a rematch of the kind of test Morocco relished in 2022.
Our verdict — who advances from Group C?
- Winner: Brazil
- Runner-up: Morocco
- Best-third watch: Scotland — projected to advance among the eight best thirds
On our projection, Brazil, Morocco and Scotland go through from Group C.
This is one of 12 group previews — see the full group-by-group predictions for all of them, or the World Cup 2026 hub for outright odds and the projected knockout bracket. Once the tournament kicks off, ScoreSage AI publishes AI predictions for every individual match on our daily predictions feed.
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