Group D: United States, Türkiye, Paraguay and Australia
The most evenly matched group in the entire draw. Any of the four could top it or finish bottom — and the co-hosts edge it at home by the finest of margins.
The numbers below are our modelled top-two probabilities — the same figures published on the World Cup 2026 hub — aggregated from public betting markets and tournament-simulation models. The top two from the group qualify automatically, and the eight best third-placed teams across all 12 groups also advance to the new Round of 32.
| Team | Top-2 probability | Projected run |
|---|---|---|
| United States | 61% | Round of 16 (advances) |
| Türkiye | 59% | Round of 32 (advances) |
| Paraguay | 43% | Round of 32 (advances) |
| Australia | 37% | Group stage (out) |
Who wins Group D?
United States (61%) edge it on home advantage and a deep, energetic squad, with Christian Pulisic the talisman.
Who takes second?
Türkiye (59%) are separated from top spot by a whisker; Hakan Çalhanoğlu and a well-organised side make them a serious threat.
The third-place picture
With eight best-third places up for grabs, the race behind the top two matters. Paraguay (43%) are our best-third pick out of this group — resilient enough to make the new format work in their favour.
Key fixture
USA vs Türkiye is the likely group decider — barely a percentage point separates them, and the order could flip on a single result.
Our verdict — who advances from Group D?
- Winner: United States
- Runner-up: Türkiye
- Best-third watch: Paraguay — projected to advance among the eight best thirds
On our projection, United States, Türkiye and Paraguay go through from Group D.
This is one of 12 group previews — see the full group-by-group predictions for all of them, or the World Cup 2026 hub for outright odds and the projected knockout bracket. Once the tournament kicks off, ScoreSage AI publishes AI predictions for every individual match on our daily predictions feed.
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