Group E: Germany, Ecuador, Ivory Coast and Curaçao
Germany should stroll it, but the draw is kind enough that two of the chasing pack go through — Ecuador and Ivory Coast both fancy their chances.
The numbers below are our modelled top-two probabilities — the same figures published on the World Cup 2026 hub — aggregated from public betting markets and tournament-simulation models. The top two from the group qualify automatically, and the eight best third-placed teams across all 12 groups also advance to the new Round of 32.
| Team | Top-2 probability | Projected run |
|---|---|---|
| Germany | 93% | Quarter-finals (advances) |
| Ecuador | 65% | Round of 32 (advances) |
| Ivory Coast | 37% | Round of 32 (advances) |
| Curaçao | 5% | Group stage (out) |
Who wins Group E?
Germany (93%) have squad depth among the very best in the field and a kind draw, with Jamal Musiala the creative spark.
Who takes second?
Ecuador (65%) are a confident pick for second — young, physical and defensively stubborn, marshalled by Moisés Caicedo.
The third-place picture
With eight best-third places up for grabs, the race behind the top two matters. Ivory Coast (37%) have the talent to cause an upset if Ecuador stumble, and our model has them advancing as a best third.
Key fixture
Germany vs Ivory Coast on June 20 at BMO Field, Toronto, is the standout Group E fixture.
Our verdict — who advances from Group E?
- Winner: Germany
- Runner-up: Ecuador
- Best-third watch: Ivory Coast — projected to advance among the eight best thirds
On our projection, Germany, Ecuador and Ivory Coast go through from Group E.
This is one of 12 group previews — see the full group-by-group predictions for all of them, or the World Cup 2026 hub for outright odds and the projected knockout bracket. Once the tournament kicks off, ScoreSage AI publishes AI predictions for every individual match on our daily predictions feed.
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