Group F: Netherlands, Japan, Sweden and Tunisia
Arguably the most interesting group at the top. The Dutch lead, but Japan — who beat Germany in 2022 — are no ordinary second seed, and our knockout projection has them reaching the last 16.
The numbers below are our modelled top-two probabilities — the same figures published on the World Cup 2026 hub — aggregated from public betting markets and tournament-simulation models. The top two from the group qualify automatically, and the eight best third-placed teams across all 12 groups also advance to the new Round of 32.
| Team | Top-2 probability | Projected run |
|---|---|---|
| Netherlands | 73% | Quarter-finals (advances) |
| Japan | 58% | Round of 16 (advances) |
| Sweden | 41% | Round of 32 (advances) |
| Tunisia | 28% | Group stage (out) |
Who wins Group F?
Netherlands (73%) have the talent and attacking quality to top the group, anchored by Virgil van Dijk.
Who takes second?
Japan (58%) are disciplined, quick on the counter and full of belief, with Kaoru Mitoma a constant threat.
The third-place picture
With eight best-third places up for grabs, the race behind the top two matters. Sweden (41%) have the firepower to trouble anyone and are our best-third pick from a strong group.
Key fixture
Netherlands vs Japan on June 14 at AT&T Stadium, Dallas, is one of the marquee ties of the first round.
Our verdict — who advances from Group F?
- Winner: Netherlands
- Runner-up: Japan
- Best-third watch: Sweden — projected to advance among the eight best thirds
On our projection, Netherlands, Japan and Sweden go through from Group F.
This is one of 12 group previews — see the full group-by-group predictions for all of them, or the World Cup 2026 hub for outright odds and the projected knockout bracket. Once the tournament kicks off, ScoreSage AI publishes AI predictions for every individual match on our daily predictions feed.
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