Group G: Belgium, Iran, Egypt and New Zealand
Belgium are the class of the group; behind them, Iran and Egypt scrap for second with both likely to advance anyway under the new format.
The numbers below are our modelled top-two probabilities — the same figures published on the World Cup 2026 hub — aggregated from public betting markets and tournament-simulation models. The top two from the group qualify automatically, and the eight best third-placed teams across all 12 groups also advance to the new Round of 32.
| Team | Top-2 probability | Projected run |
|---|---|---|
| Belgium | 85% | Round of 16 (advances) |
| Iran | 57% | Round of 32 (advances) |
| Egypt | 43% | Round of 32 (advances) |
| New Zealand | 15% | Group stage (out) |
Who wins Group G?
Belgium (85%) are the strongest team here and should top it, with Kevin De Bruyne still pulling the strings.
Who takes second?
Iran (57%) get our nod for second on their defensive resilience, edging a tight battle.
The third-place picture
With eight best-third places up for grabs, the race behind the top two matters. Egypt (43%) carry Mohamed Salah's threat on the counter and are our best-third pick — whoever finishes third here is a strong qualifier.
Key fixture
Belgium vs Iran is the likely decider for the runner-up spot in a winnable group.
Our verdict — who advances from Group G?
- Winner: Belgium
- Runner-up: Iran
- Best-third watch: Egypt — projected to advance among the eight best thirds
On our projection, Belgium, Iran and Egypt go through from Group G.
This is one of 12 group previews — see the full group-by-group predictions for all of them, or the World Cup 2026 hub for outright odds and the projected knockout bracket. Once the tournament kicks off, ScoreSage AI publishes AI predictions for every individual match on our daily predictions feed.
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