Group H: Spain, Uruguay, Saudi Arabia and Cape Verde
Perhaps the easiest group to call. Spain are tournament co-favourites and will expect to cruise; Uruguay are comfortably clear in second.
The numbers below are our modelled top-two probabilities — the same figures published on the World Cup 2026 hub — aggregated from public betting markets and tournament-simulation models. The top two from the group qualify automatically, and the eight best third-placed teams across all 12 groups also advance to the new Round of 32.
| Team | Top-2 probability | Projected run |
|---|---|---|
| Spain | 99% | Winner (advances) |
| Uruguay | 63% | Round of 16 (advances) |
| Saudi Arabia | 25% | Group stage (out) |
| Cape Verde | 13% | Group stage (out) |
Who wins Group H?
Spain (99%) are co-favourites for the whole tournament, with teenage star Lamine Yamal lighting up a deep, balanced squad.
Who takes second?
Uruguay (63%) are experienced, well-coached and capable of a deep run of their own, with Federico Valverde driving the midfield.
The third-place picture
With eight best-third places up for grabs, the race behind the top two matters. Saudi Arabia (25%) are the more likely of the two outsiders to spring a surprise, but the gap to the top two is wide and our model has the third-place ticket going elsewhere.
Key fixture
Spain vs Uruguay on June 26 at Estadio Akron, Guadalajara, is the group decider — and a serious test of Uruguay's credentials.
Our verdict — who advances from Group H?
- Winner: Spain
- Runner-up: Uruguay
- Best-third watch: Saudi Arabia — projected to just miss the eight best-third places
On our projection, Spain and Uruguay go through from Group H.
This is one of 12 group previews — see the full group-by-group predictions for all of them, or the World Cup 2026 hub for outright odds and the projected knockout bracket. Once the tournament kicks off, ScoreSage AI publishes AI predictions for every individual match on our daily predictions feed.
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