Group I: France, Senegal, Norway and Iraq
The group of death. France carry the highest win probability of any team in the tournament, but second place is brutal — and one of Senegal or Norway must take the long road as a best third.
The numbers below are our modelled top-two probabilities — the same figures published on the World Cup 2026 hub — aggregated from public betting markets and tournament-simulation models. The top two from the group qualify automatically, and the eight best third-placed teams across all 12 groups also advance to the new Round of 32.
| Team | Top-2 probability | Projected run |
|---|---|---|
| France | 85% | Runner-up (advances) |
| Senegal | 48% | Round of 32 (advances) |
| Norway | 41% | Round of 16 (advances) |
| Iraq | 25% | Group stage (out) |
Who wins Group I?
France (85%) have the star power and depth to top it, led by Kylian Mbappé.
Who takes second?
Senegal (48%) edge our nod for second on their defensive organisation and tournament pedigree, with Sadio Mané still pivotal — though the margin over Norway is wafer-thin.
The third-place picture
With eight best-third places up for grabs, the race behind the top two matters. Norway (41%) are, with Erling Haaland leading the line, the standout third-place threat in the entire field — our model has them through as a best third.
Key fixture
France vs Senegal on June 16 at MetLife Stadium opens the group of death — a heavyweight collision from the first whistle.
Our verdict — who advances from Group I?
- Winner: France
- Runner-up: Senegal
- Best-third watch: Norway — projected to advance among the eight best thirds
On our projection, France, Senegal and Norway go through from Group I.
This is one of 12 group previews — see the full group-by-group predictions for all of them, or the World Cup 2026 hub for outright odds and the projected knockout bracket. Once the tournament kicks off, ScoreSage AI publishes AI predictions for every individual match on our daily predictions feed.
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