Group K: Portugal, Colombia, Uzbekistan and DR Congo
The closest fight for top spot anywhere in the draw, with Cristiano Ronaldo's last tournament in the balance.
The numbers below are our modelled top-two probabilities — the same figures published on the World Cup 2026 hub — aggregated from public betting markets and tournament-simulation models. The top two from the group qualify automatically, and the eight best third-placed teams across all 12 groups also advance to the new Round of 32.
| Team | Top-2 probability | Projected run |
|---|---|---|
| Portugal | 77% | Quarter-finals (advances) |
| Colombia | 73% | Round of 16 (advances) |
| Uzbekistan | 28% | Round of 32 (advances) |
| DR Congo | 23% | Group stage (out) |
Who wins Group K?
Portugal (77%) get our edge for top spot on squad depth, in what is almost certainly Cristiano Ronaldo's final tournament.
Who takes second?
Colombia (73%) are balanced, dangerous and a near-lock for the top two, with Luis Díaz the standout.
The third-place picture
With eight best-third places up for grabs, the race behind the top two matters. Uzbekistan (28%) sneak our best-third pick on debut, marginally ahead of DR Congo in the scrap for the long-shot ticket.
Key fixture
Portugal vs Colombia is the likely decider for top spot — four points of probability separate them, and the head-to-head probably settles it.
Our verdict — who advances from Group K?
- Winner: Portugal
- Runner-up: Colombia
- Best-third watch: Uzbekistan — projected to advance among the eight best thirds
On our projection, Portugal, Colombia and Uzbekistan go through from Group K.
This is one of 12 group previews — see the full group-by-group predictions for all of them, or the World Cup 2026 hub for outright odds and the projected knockout bracket. Once the tournament kicks off, ScoreSage AI publishes AI predictions for every individual match on our daily predictions feed.
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