Group L: England, Croatia, Panama and Ghana
A 2018 semi-final rematch sits at the top. Our model backs Panama for the third-place ticket — though Ghana's World Cup pedigree makes them the romantic's pick.
The numbers below are our modelled top-two probabilities — the same figures published on the World Cup 2026 hub — aggregated from public betting markets and tournament-simulation models. The top two from the group qualify automatically, and the eight best third-placed teams across all 12 groups also advance to the new Round of 32.
| Team | Top-2 probability | Projected run |
|---|---|---|
| England | 89% | Semi-finals (advances) |
| Croatia | 70% | Round of 16 (advances) |
| Panama | 36% | Round of 32 (advances) |
| Ghana | 5% | Group stage (out) |
Who wins Group L?
England (89%) are heavily favoured to win the group with a Premier League-hardened squad and tournament pedigree, with Jude Bellingham at its heart.
Who takes second?
Croatia (70%) are once again punching above their weight — never underestimate Luka Modrić in a knockout.
The third-place picture
With eight best-third places up for grabs, the race behind the top two matters. Panama (36%) are our best-third pick, marginally ahead of Ghana. It is the model's call against the form book: Ghana have the bigger World Cup history, but our numbers favour Panama for the long-shot ticket.
Key fixture
England vs Croatia on June 17 at AT&T Stadium, Dallas, is a 2018 semi-final rematch and one of the fixtures of the first round.
Our verdict — who advances from Group L?
- Winner: England
- Runner-up: Croatia
- Best-third watch: Panama — projected to advance among the eight best thirds
On our projection, England, Croatia and Panama go through from Group L.
This is one of 12 group previews — see the full group-by-group predictions for all of them, or the World Cup 2026 hub for outright odds and the projected knockout bracket. Once the tournament kicks off, ScoreSage AI publishes AI predictions for every individual match on our daily predictions feed.
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