Day two of the knockouts
The 2026 World Cup Round of 32 is up and running. Canada opened it on June 28 with a dramatic 1-0 win over South Africa, settled by a Stephen Eustáquio strike in stoppage time, to become the first side into the Round of 16. Now the knockouts hit full stride with three ties on June 29 — and one of them is the pick of the entire round.
Here is our read on all three.
Netherlands vs Morocco — the tie of the round
Estadio BBVA, Monterrey
This is the one. Morocco matched Brazil point-for-point in Group C, finishing on seven points and separated only by goal difference, and they remain the 2022 semi-finalists — organised, athletic, and fearless against elite opposition. The Netherlands topped Group F in style, including a 5-1 dismantling of Sweden, and are deservedly favourites.
But this is as close to a coin-flip as a favourite-vs-underdog tie gets. Morocco's defensive structure and transition threat are exactly the profile that wins knockout games, and they will not fear the Dutch.
- Model lean: Netherlands, narrowly.
- The angle: Morocco on the double chance carries real value, and a tight, low-scoring game that could go to penalties points toward the under. This has shootout written all over it.
Brazil vs Japan — flair against organisation
NRG Stadium, Houston
Brazil have been one of the most watchable teams in the tournament under Carlo Ancelotti, with Vinícius Júnior driving an attack that has scored freely. Japan — Group F runners-up — are the great World Cup disruptors, a side that beat Germany and Spain in Qatar and never respects reputations.
Brazil are clear favourites and have the individual quality to settle this, but Japan's discipline and pace on the break mean the Seleção cannot switch off.
- Model lean: Brazil.
- The angle: Brazil to win, but Japan's threat makes Both Teams To Score a live consideration. Backing Brazil on the Draw No Bet removes the upset-and-penalties risk.
Germany vs Paraguay — favourites with a warning sign
Gillette Stadium, Foxborough
Germany won Group E, but it was far from convincing — a 7-1 thrashing of Curaçao flattered a campaign that also featured a 2-1 defeat to Ecuador and a real defensive wobble. Paraguay snuck through as one of the eight best third-placed teams and are the classic awkward knockout opponent: hard to break down, happy to make it ugly, and dangerous from set pieces.
- Model lean: Germany — but with less confidence than the scoreline of their group-stage rout might suggest.
- The angle: Germany's defensive vulnerability and Paraguay's low-block discipline make this a candidate for a tight, low-scoring affair. Do not assume a comfortable German win.
The bigger picture
Day two of the Round of 32 is a snapshot of what makes this stage compelling: a genuine 50-50 in Netherlands vs Morocco, a flair-versus-organisation classic in Brazil vs Japan, and a favourite carrying a warning sign in Germany vs Paraguay. Expect the goal rate to settle below the group stage's near-three-a-game pace as the stakes rise and the caution kicks in.
The winners here advance to a Round of 16 that is taking shape fast — Canada are already there. For the full bracket and our lean on every remaining tie, see the Round of 32 preview. For live odds and the projected route to the July 19 final at MetLife, head to the World Cup 2026 hub, with AI predictions on every fixture in the daily predictions feed.
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