The biggest World Cup ever is off and running
A week into the 2026 FIFA World Cup, the expanded 48-team format is delivering exactly the kind of volume it promised — a packed schedule across the United States, Canada and Mexico, sold-out stadiums, and far more football than any tournament before it. The group stage is still unfolding, but the early evidence already points in a few clear directions. Here are the five talking points from week one.
1. The goals are flowing
This is shaping up as a high-scoring World Cup. The opening exchanges have been packed with goals, with several of the bigger nations posting emphatic, multi-goal wins against the tournament's lighter sides. For a competition that often starts cagily — teams terrified of losing their opener — the 2026 edition has been refreshingly open from the off.
There is a structural reason for it, too. The new Round of 32 means the eight best third-placed teams advance, so a heavy defeat is no longer automatically fatal — but goal difference and goals scored can be the difference between a best-third ticket and an early flight home. That nudges teams toward chasing goals rather than shutting up shop. We dig into the numbers behind the trend in our World Cup betting trends piece.
2. The favourites are flexing
The pre-tournament heavyweights have, by and large, looked the part. The sides our model rated most highly before a ball was kicked — the European elite and the South American giants — have started with the authority you would expect, racking up comfortable wins and banking goal difference early.
That matters for the outright market. When the favourites avoid slip-ups in the group stage, the long-shot value that often appears after a shock result simply never materialises. We laid out the pre-tournament picture in Who Will Win the World Cup 2026? AI vs the Bookmakers — so far, the market leaders are doing nothing to dent their odds.
3. The co-hosts have all started well
Home advantage is real, and the three host nations have leaned on it. Mexico opened the entire tournament at a raucous Estadio Azteca and got their campaign off to a winning start; the United States and Canada both followed with positive openings of their own. Our model has always treated home support at this World Cup as worth genuine points, and the first week backed that up.
For neutrals and bettors alike, all three co-hosts staying competitive keeps the home crowds loud and the knockout permutations interesting deep into the group stage. The full group context is in our Group A, Group B and Group D previews.
4. Messi is on a mission
At 39, Lionel Messi is playing like a man who knows this is the last one. Argentina's captain has been the story of the opening week — driving the holders forward, decisive in front of goal, and quickly establishing himself at the head of the Golden Boot race. It is almost certainly his final World Cup, and he is treating every minute like it.
He is not alone in the scoring charts — France's forwards, Brazil's Vinícius Júnior and England's Harry Kane are all involved — but Messi has set the early pace. We track the full race in our Golden Boot tracker.
5. The minnows are competing — mostly
The expanded format always carried a risk: would the newer, lower-ranked nations be competitive, or would we get a run of lop-sided blowouts? The answer so far is both. A handful of the debutants and smaller sides have been brave, organised and a genuine nuisance to bigger opponents. A few others have been on the wrong end of heavy defeats.
That split is exactly what makes the best-third race so compelling. A single point — or a respectable goal difference in a heavy loss — can keep a smaller nation's dream alive. It is the sub-plot that runs underneath every group, and it is why so few of the final-round group games will be dead rubbers.
What to watch next
The picture sharpens fast from here. Second and third group games decide who controls each group, who is sweating on a best-third place, and who is already out. Keep an eye on goal difference in the tight groups — in this format, it is a currency.
For the full outright odds, every group projected and the live knockout bracket, head to the World Cup 2026 hub. And for AI predictions on every single match as it comes, the daily predictions feed is updated throughout the tournament.
ScoreSage AI publishes data-driven football predictions for entertainment and information only. Betting carries risk — only stake what you can afford to lose, and please gamble responsibly. 18+.