Today's EuroLeague predictions
This table updates by itself. It shows Sage's win chance and projected score for the free half of upcoming EuroLeague games. The full daily list is on the EuroLeague predictions page.
Updated Friday 30 October. Times are UK time. 4 of the 7 games in the next 36 hours are free. Pro opens the rest, plus over/under and handicap reads.
| Tip-off | Game | Sage favours | Win chance | Projected score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fri 17:30 | Anadolu Efes v Panathinaikos | Panathinaikos | 60% | 81 – 84 |
| Fri 18:00 | Zalgiris Kaunas v Partizan Mozzart Bet | Zalgiris Kaunas | 70% | 86 – 80 |
| Fri 19:00 | Lyon-Villeurbanne v Baskonia | Lyon-Villeurbanne | 63% | 91 – 87 |
| Fri 19:15 | Olympiacos v Olimpia Milano | Olympiacos | 91% | 95 – 80 |
Below the table is why those numbers look the way they do. Two things stand out this season: the EuroLeague has never scored this much in our data, and its famous home court has, so far, been far less decisive than usual.
All figures come from 1,474 finished EuroLeague games in our data since 2022-23, read on 30 October 2026.
Five seasons of the EuroLeague
| Season | Games | Points a game | Home wins | Home margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022-23 | 328 | 161.5 | 62.5% | +4.4 |
| 2023-24 | 331 | 163.2 | 64.7% | +4.0 |
| 2024-25 | 330 | 167.8 | 61.8% | +3.4 |
| 2025-26 | 402 | 172.0 | 63.7% | +3.5 |
| 2026-27 so far | 83 | 174.1 | 53.0% | +2.6 |
Scoring: up 12 points in four years
The trend is steady and large. A game that averaged 161.5 points in 2022-23 averaged 172.0 last season and 174.1 through the first 83 games of this one. Each of the last four seasons has been higher than the one before.
Why it matters: a total line built on old EuroLeague habits would be badly out of date. Sage keeps a running scoring average for each league, and its projected totals move with it, so this is already in the projected scores above.
The scoring is also evenly spread. Across 1,408 games the quarters average 41.8, 41.7, 40.6 and 41.7 points. There is no big late surge like Spain's Liga ACB, where the second half outscores the first by nearly six points. So a EuroLeague half-time score is a fair guide to the pace.
Eight in ten EuroLeague games in our data finished with a combined score between 145 and 190. That band is wide, and any single game can land anywhere in it.
Home court: strong for years, soft so far
The EuroLeague has one of the strongest home leans we track. Over five seasons hosts have won 62.6%, second only to Greece's Basket League among our 24 leagues. In each of the four full seasons in the table, the home win rate sat between 61.8% and 64.7%.
This season it is 53.0%.
Before reading too much into that, look at the sample. Eighty-three games is about a fifth of a season, and it is the kind of number that could drift back to 60% by Christmas. A swing this big in a small sample is more likely a blip than a change in how the league works. We will know more by the new year.
The model handles this by moving slowly. Its home value updates with each game, but only a little, so one strange month does not rewrite five years. If the pattern holds, the number will follow.
The fortresses
Averages hide how far the top clubs pull away at home. Over the last three full seasons:
| Team | Home games | Home wins | Home margin |
|---|---|---|---|
| Real Madrid | 63 | 83% | +8.5 |
| Olympiacos | 64 | 80% | +8.6 |
| Fenerbahce | 60 | 78% | +6.6 |
| Panathinaikos | 63 | 75% | +8.3 |
| Barcelona | 59 | 71% | +6.1 |
| Monaco | 62 | 69% | +5.6 |
These are not just home-court effects. They are strong teams who also happen to be at home. The EuroLeague table shows how they are doing now, which matters more than history.
The league of close games
32% of EuroLeague games finish within five points, the highest of any competition with a prediction page here. In the NBA it is 25.6%. And 17.7% are within three points.
At the other end, only 11.8% of EuroLeague games are decided by 20 or more. In the NBA it is 19.7%.
That has a practical meaning. A favourite in this league is rarely comfortable, and a 65% chance should feel like what it is: likelier than not, with about one defeat in three.
One of the harder leagues to call
In our test on games the model had never seen, Sage's favourite won 62.3% of 485 EuroLeague games. In the NBA it was 66.0%, and across all 24 leagues the model did better in most. Only a handful of leagues were harder.
The upside is the margin. Sage's typical miss on the EuroLeague margin was 9.2 points, one of its smallest. So games are close, the model usually knows that, and it still can't reliably say which side of a close game lands on top.
Expect EuroLeague chances to sit nearer the middle than NBA ones, and treat that as the honest reading of a tight league.
How to read the predictions above
- The win chance is for the whole game, overtime included.
- The projected score is a central estimate. Use it for the shape of the game, not as a forecast of the exact result.
- Team news is missing. The model has no injury or line-up data, and clubs play domestic games in between, so check the news. Our method post explains the limits.
- Over/under and handicap reads are in Pro, along with the other half of games.
Every call is settled and counted on the public basketball record, right or wrong.
Frequently asked questions
How often does the home team win in the EuroLeague? 62.6% of the time across 1,474 games since 2022-23, by an average of 3.7 points. This season it is 53.0% from 83 games, which is too small a sample to call a change.
How many points are scored in a EuroLeague game? 166.9 on average over five seasons, but 174.1 so far this season. Scoring has risen in each of the last four seasons.
Are EuroLeague predictions free? The strongest half of each day's games shows win chance and projected score free. Settled calls are free in full.
Why does the EuroLeague have so many close games? Our data shows that it does, not why. Shorter games than the NBA, at 40 minutes against 48, give fewer possessions for the stronger team to pull away, which is one likely reason.
Where can I see other leagues? Start with the basketball predictions page, or the EuroCup and Basketball Champions League pages. For how leagues compare, see home advantage: NBA vs Europe.
Predictions are chances, not promises. Only bet what you can afford to lose. 18+. BeGambleAware.org.